How to Use a Pre-Mortem to Identify and Mitigate Risks

Hey there! I’m Raika, a Senior UX and Conversation Designer at Amazon. If you’re new here, welcome! You can subscribe to my Secrets to Great UX Design newsletter for weekly insights. I share actionable ways to create great experiences, grow your career and more… for designers and non-designers.

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When we start a new project, we’re excited about the possibilities.

In fact, most of us have a natural bias towards seeing the positive side of things. But if you’ve been working for a bit, you know things never go as planned.

In fact, 70% of all projects fail according to a study by the Standish Group.

From internal conflict to poor planning to unrealistic expectations. There are a number of reasons projects go over budget, get delayed, fail or bridges get burned, people quit and so on.

I’ve been on a number of projects like this. One redesign was particularly challenging. There was endless conflict. It turned out that engineering had a financial incentive to launch by a certain date while the brand team’s goals were tied to the brand experience + sales.

That meant the teams were inherently at odds and headed in divergent directions.

I think Design can help teams avoid this by uncovering these risks early. So now when I start a project, I conduct a pre-mortem.

A pre-mortem is an exercise in which the team imagines that a project has failed and works backwards identifying the reasons why it failed. Doing so helps identify potential risks and challenges early on so that they can be mitigated or avoided.

In the words of Charlie Munger:

“Invert, always invert: Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward. What happens if all our plans go wrong? Where don’t we want to go, and how do you get there? Instead of looking for success, make a list of how to fail – through sloth, envy, resentment, self-pity, entitlement, and all the mental habits of self-defeat. Avoid these qualities and you will succeed. Tell me where I’m going to die, that is, so I don’t go there.”

Better questions = better pre-mortems.

Here are some problem-focused, solution-focused and action-oriented questions to consider asking:

I. Problem-focused questions

Use these questions to probe further into “what could go wrong?” and examine your upcoming project from every angle, so you’re prepared for the worst. 

1. What does failure look like?

2. What are the biggest risks we face in executing this project?

3. What could go wrong with our project or plan?

4. What incentives do team members have? Are they aligned?

5. What are the key assumptions we have made, and what happens if they are proven wrong?

6. What early warning signs would tell us something is going wrong?

7. What external factors (i.e. market changes, economic conditions, or competitor actions) are likely to impact our success?

8. What could we end up doing to cause our own failure?

9. What are the potential blind spots in our plan or approach?

10. What are the potential unintended consequences of our actions?

11. What could cause delays or other roadblocks to success?

12. What could we overlook or underestimate?

13. What could go wrong that we haven’t even considered yet?

14. What risks have we faced in the past that are still unmitigated?

15. What’s the most likely reason this project fails?

16. What’s the most likely and most threatening reason this project could fail?

17. What factors could cause us to miss the deadline of this project?

18. What factors could cause us to go over budget on this project? 

19. What if we don’t have the necessary resources (time, money, personnel, etc.) to complete the project?

20. Are there any unexpected legal or regulatory changes that could affect the project?

21. What if the market or customer’s needs change mid-project?

22. What if the project scope or requirements are unclear or constantly changing?

23. What could we do if team members leave or become unavailable during the project?

24. What if our competitors launch a similar project or product while we’re still in development?

II. Solutions-focused questions

Now that you’ve identified some potential causes of failure, follow them up with the questions below. These questions are designed to help you dig deeper into how to mitigate risks. 

1. How might our team communication break down during the project?

2. How can we ensure that we have the necessary resources to complete the project on time and within budget?

3. How can we address potential conflicts or disagreements among team members?

4. How might we avoid overlooking key project requirements or deliverables?

5. How can we keep up with changing market or customer needs throughout the project?

6. How might we adapt the project plan if unforeseen challenges arise?

7. How can we ensure that our project timeline is realistic and achievable?

8. How might we mitigate the risks associated with using new or untested technologies?

9. How can we ensure that project goals and objectives are clearly defined and understood by all team members?

10. How might we address the potential impact of external factors on the project, such as economic conditions or supply chain disruptions?

11. How do we fill in the gaps if someone is sick?

III. Action-oriented questions

The ultimate goal of a pre-mortem is to reduce risk and increase the chances of project success. Use this last bank of questions to identify actionable ways to proactively mitigate risk.

1. Given everything we’ve discussed, what precautions should we take?

2. What action can we take now to mitigate the risk?

3. Are there any risks we haven’t considered in this pre-mortem?

4. Are there risks you are worried nobody is talking about? 

5. What do we have the power to impact and what’s outside our control?

6. What’s one simple thing we can do to reduce the risk of failure?

7. What’s the easiest thing we can do right now to reduce the risk of failure?

8. If we could only do one thing to reduce the risk of failure, what would it be?

Once the team has identified a list of potential risks, discuss each risk in detail. Include the likelihood, the impact, and potential steps to mitigate or avoid each risk.

As you facilitate the conversation, don't be afraid to challenge each other's assumptions. Focus on the root causes of the risks, not just the symptoms. And remember to follow up on the plan and make sure that the risks are being managed effectively.

So in summary, when we identify and mitigate risks early on, we increase our chances of delivering a great product experience on time, within budget, and to our required quality standards.

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Favorite Quote and Photo of the Week

“Expect the best, plan for the worst, and prepare to be surprised.” — Denis Waitley

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That’s it for today. Thanks for reading!

Until next week,
raika

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